Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP

Tue 3 Nov, 17:45

FT 0-1

AI Prediction

LOW 47%

Sporting CP

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-1

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 0.98

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Shakhtar Donetsk last 5 at home: 4W-1D-0L (scored 10, conceded 2)

6 Sporting CP last 4 away: 3W-1D-0L (scored 8, conceded 2)

7 Shakhtar Donetsk without: Eguinaldo, V. Korniyenko (+12 more)

8 Sporting CP without: S. Alexandropoulos, Z. Debast (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Sporting CP with an estimated 47% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-0.98 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Sporting CP, so treat this one with extra caution. Shakhtar Donetsk have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 2), while Sporting CP have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 2). Shakhtar Donetsk without: Eguinaldo, V. Korniyenko (+12 more); Sporting CP without: S. Alexandropoulos, Z. Debast (+4 more).