Manchester United vs AS Roma

Tue 3 Nov, 20:00

FT 3-2

AI Prediction

LOW 43%

Manchester United

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-2

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.96 - 0.00

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 AS Roma last 5 away: 2W-3D-0L (scored 11, conceded 6)

5 H2H (2): even, 0D, avg 6.5 goals, BTTS 100%

6 Manchester United without: P. Dorgu, M. Rashford (+8 more)

7 AS Roma without: P. Dybala, M. Kone (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Manchester United with an estimated 43% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.96-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. AS Roma have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 11, conceding 6). The head-to-head is even (1 win each, 0 draws in their last 2), averaging 6.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 100% of meetings. Manchester United without: P. Dorgu, M. Rashford (+8 more); AS Roma without: P. Dybala, M. Kone (+6 more).