Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain

Wed 14 Oct, 19:00

FT 2-4

AI Prediction

LOW 45%

Manchester City

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-4

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

3 Manchester City last 5 at home: 5W-0D-0L (scored 16, conceded 5)

4 Paris Saint Germain last 5 away: 2W-2D-1L (scored 7, conceded 6)

5 H2H (7): Manchester City lead 4-2 (1D), avg 3.0 goals, BTTS 57%

6 Paris Saint Germain without: A. Longoni, S. Mayulu (+2 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Manchester City with an estimated 45% win probability, based on market odds and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Manchester City lead the head-to-head 4-2 (with 1 draw), averaging 3.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 57% of meetings. Manchester City have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 16, conceding 5), while Paris Saint Germain have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 6). Paris Saint Germain without: A. Longoni, S. Mayulu (+2 more).