Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool

Wed 4 Nov, 17:45

FT 3-2

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 56%

Liverpool

Predicted Winner

2-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-2

Predicted: 2-3. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.14 - 2.45

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Fenerbahçe last 5 at home: 2W-2D-1L (scored 15, conceded 5)

6 Liverpool last 3 away: 3W-0D-0L (scored 9, conceded 4)

7 Fenerbahçe without: N. Ake, M. Asensio (+12 more)

8 Liverpool without: C. Bradley, F. Chiesa (+14 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Liverpool with an estimated 56% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.14-2.45 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Liverpool, so treat this one with extra caution. Fenerbahçe have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 15, conceding 5), while Liverpool have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 4). Fenerbahçe without: N. Ake, M. Asensio (+12 more); Liverpool without: C. Bradley, F. Chiesa (+14 more).