Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United

Tue 13 Oct, 19:00

FT 2-0

AI Prediction

LOW 38%

Atletico Madrid

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-0

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Atletico Madrid last 4 at home: 3W-1D-0L (scored 10, conceded 3)

5 Manchester United last 3 away: 0W-2D-1L (scored 3, conceded 5)

6 H2H (5): Atletico Madrid lead 3-1 (1D), avg 1.6 goals, BTTS 40%

7 Manchester United without: K. Darlow, P. Dorgu (+16 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Atletico Madrid with an estimated 38% win probability, based on market odds and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Atletico Madrid, so treat this one with extra caution. Atletico Madrid lead the head-to-head 3-1 (with 1 draw), averaging 1.6 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. Atletico Madrid have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 10, conceding 3), while Manchester United have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 3, conceding 5). Manchester United without: K. Darlow, P. Dorgu (+16 more).