Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München

Tue 3 Nov, 20:00

FT 0-2

AI Prediction

LOW 41%

Bayern München

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-2

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.93 - 0.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Atletico Madrid last 4 at home: 4W-0D-0L (scored 9, conceded 1)

6 Bayern München last 4 away: 2W-2D-0L (scored 10, conceded 7)

7 H2H (6): Bayern München lead 3-2 (1D), avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 33%

8 Atletico Madrid without: J. Cardoso, M. Hjulmand (+2 more)

9 Bayern München without: L. Diaz, S. Gnabry (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bayern München with an estimated 41% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.93-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Bayern München, so treat this one with extra caution. Atletico Madrid have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 9, conceding 1), while Bayern München have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 10, conceding 7). Bayern München lead the head-to-head 3-2 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 33% of meetings. Atletico Madrid without: J. Cardoso, M. Hjulmand (+2 more); Bayern München without: L. Diaz, S. Gnabry (+6 more).