AS Roma vs Real Madrid

Wed 14 Oct, 19:00

FT 3-4

AI Prediction

LOW 48%

Real Madrid

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-4

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 AS Roma last 3 at home: 2W-1D-0L (scored 8, conceded 3)

5 Real Madrid last 5 away: 3W-0D-2L (scored 9, conceded 6)

6 H2H (5): Real Madrid lead 5-0 (0D), avg 2.4 goals, BTTS 20%

7 AS Roma without: M. Bah, B. Cristante (+4 more)

8 Real Madrid without: R. Asencio, Eder Militao (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Real Madrid with an estimated 48% win probability, based on market odds and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Real Madrid, so treat this one with extra caution. Real Madrid lead the head-to-head 5-0 (with 0 draws), averaging 2.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 20% of meetings. AS Roma have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 3 at home (scoring 8, conceding 3), while Real Madrid have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 6). AS Roma without: M. Bah, B. Cristante (+4 more); Real Madrid without: R. Asencio, Eder Militao (+6 more).