Arsenal vs Lille

Tue 13 Oct, 19:00

FT 3-0

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 69%

Arsenal

Predicted Winner

3-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-0

Predicted: 3-0. Exact score correct!

Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 10pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Arsenal last 5 at home: 4W-1D-0L (scored 11, conceded 3)

5 Lille last 5 away: 2W-2D-1L (scored 7, conceded 5)

6 Arsenal without: P. Hincapie, W. Saliba (+6 more)

7 Lille without: H. Igamane, E. Mbappe (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Arsenal with an estimated 69% win probability, based on market odds and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Arsenal than the model is — the blend sits 10 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Arsenal have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 11, conceding 3), while Lille have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 5). Arsenal without: P. Hincapie, W. Saliba (+6 more); Lille without: H. Igamane, E. Mbappe (+4 more).