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USA vs Peru

Sat 26 Sept, 20:30

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 43%

USA

Predicted Winner

1-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.67 - 2.04

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 USA last 5 at home: 3W-0D-2L (scored 10, conceded 7)

6 Peru last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 5, conceded 8)

7 H2H (1): even, 1D, avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 100%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours USA with an estimated 43% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.67-2.04 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Peru, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours USA, so treat this one with extra caution. USA have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 7), while Peru have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 8). All 1 of their last meetings have ended in a draw, averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 100% of meetings.