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Japan vs Uruguay

Thu 24 Sept, 10:05

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 49%

Japan

Predicted Winner

1-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 0.37 - 0.00

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Japan last 5 at home: 4W-1D-0L (scored 10, conceded 3)

5 Uruguay last 5 away: 0W-4D-1L (scored 3, conceded 7)

6 H2H (3): Japan lead 1-0 (2D), avg 4.3 goals, BTTS 100%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Japan with an estimated 49% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.37-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Japan have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 3), while Uruguay have won 0, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 3, conceding 7). Japan lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 2 draws), averaging 4.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 100% of meetings.