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South Korea vs Ecuador

Thu 24 Sept, 11:00

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 37%

South Korea

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.48 - 0.99

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 South Korea last 5 at home: 4W-0D-1L (scored 9, conceded 5)

6 Ecuador last 5 away: 0W-3D-2L (scored 2, conceded 5)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours South Korea with an estimated 37% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.48-0.99 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours South Korea, so treat this one with extra caution. South Korea have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 9, conceding 5), while Ecuador have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 2, conceding 5).