Singapore vs China

China is heavily favored (61.6% fair probability) and recent H2H shows they beat Singapore 4-1 in March 2024, though the first meeting was 2-2. Both teams average ~1.2 goals scored and 1.3-1.7 conceded; combined expected goals ~2.5-2.7 supports Over 2.5. H2H shows 100% BTTS rate (both 2-2 and 4-1 had both teams scoring). China's away form is mixed but they've scored in 5/6 recent matches. Singapore's home record shows 50% BTTS, 50% O2.5 rates. Schedule advantage to Singapore (played 4 days ago vs China 65 days ago) is minimal in a friendly. Market odds reflect China's clear superiority; data supports the favorite with high BTTS probability.

China's 4-1 victory in March 2024 rematch and superior recent form justify the 1.48 favorite odds; 61.6% fair probability is reasonable.

100% BTTS in last two H2H meetings, both teams 50% BTTS rate in form, both score ~1.0-1.2 per match.

Combined expected goals 2.5-2.7, both teams' recent form shows 50% O2.5 rate, H2H meetings averaged 4.5 goals.

Draw or China win covers 82.7% fair probability; X2 at 1.14 (87.7% implied) is overpriced but safer than pure away pick.