Spain vs Iraq

Spain is a heavy favorite (1.05 odds, 90% fair probability) facing Iraq in a friendly. Spain's recent form is excellent: LDWWWW with 2.8 goals/match and 0.8 conceded. Iraq has strong recent form (LWWWWW, 2.3 scored, 0.7 conceded) but faces a significantly superior opponent. Spain missing Yamal, Barrenetxea, and López is a concern but not enough to flip the match. Iraq last played 6 days ago (fresher), Spain 65 days ago. Both teams show 33% BTTS rate recently. Odds heavily favor Spain win and Over 2.5 (76% fair). However, Iraq's defensive solidity (67% CS rate, 0.7 conceded avg) and Spain's injury absences create some defensive vulnerability. Expected goals favor Spain decisively but not overwhelmingly given Iraq's recent form.

Spain is vastly superior quality; 90% fair probability justified by form, squad depth, and H2H expectation despite injuries.

Both teams show 33% BTTS rate in recent form; Spain's attacking prowess (2.8 goals/match) vs Iraq's defensive solidity (0.7 conceded) suggests both score.

Spain averages 2.8 goals scored; Iraq 2.3. Combined expected ~3.5 goals; 76% fair probability for Over is reasonable but Spain's missing attackers create slight friction.

Spain win or draw covers 96% fair probability; Iraq upset is low-probability despite good recent form.