Albania vs Luxembourg

Albania favored at 1.62 odds (61.7% implied). Recent form shows W2 streak (vs Czechia 3-0, Bulgaria 2-0 in Oct 2023), though followed by poor run. Luxembourg also W2 (vs Bosnia 4-1, Iceland 3-1) but volatile: lost 0-9 to Portugal. Both teams played friendlies 3 days ago; fatigue/rotation risk. Luxembourg's away form shows 50% BTTS rate, 2.2 avg conceded—Albania's home record shows 50% CS rate. Poisson unavailable, but Luxembourg's attacking profile (1.7 avg scored) vs Albania's defensive solidity (0.8 conceded) suggests moderate-scoring game. Market underprices BTTS (45.5% odds) given Luxembourg's recent offensive output and Albania's mixed defensive record.

Albania home favorite with recent W2 streak; odds 1.62 fairly priced but not exceptional value given form volatility.

Luxembourg 50% BTTS rate in recent form, 1.7 avg scored; Albania 50% FTS rate suggests both teams likely to score despite defensive solidity.

Luxembourg's 2.2 avg conceded plus 1.7 avg scored, Albania's 1.0 scored, combined ~3.0 expected goals favors Over despite market 42.9% fair.

Home win or draw covers 82% fair probability; safer than backing away at 17.7% given Albania's home record and recent form.