Sweden vs Greece

Sweden favored at 1.91 odds (47.5% fair). Recent form shows W1 streak with 2.0 avg goals scored vs Greece's 1.5. Sweden plays at home with 67% O2.5 rate; Greece away with 50% O2.5 rate. Greece's 50% FTS rate and Sweden's 50% BTTS rate suggest both teams likely score. Schedule advantage: Sweden played 3 days ago (fresh), Greece 65 days ago (match rust). Injuries minimal. Fan vote 76% home aligns with data. Over 2.5 likely given combined form. Slight home bias correction applied—draw at 26.7% fair is respectable but Sweden's recent W1 and goal-scoring edge justify home pick.

Sweden's W1 streak, superior goal-scoring (2.0 vs 1.5), and home advantage outweigh Greece's defensive solidity; 47.5% fair odds leave modest edge.

Sweden 50% BTTS rate + Greece 50% FTS rate (fails to keep clean sheet) suggests both teams score; combined 55.6% market fair reflects this likelihood.

Sweden 67% O2.5 at home, Greece 50% O2.5 away; combined expected goals ~2.8 exceeds 2.5 threshold; 48.7% fair for Over suggests slight underpricing.

Home win or draw covers 74.2% of outcomes; 80% Sofascore odds on 1X offer strong safety margin with minimal edge loss vs pure home pick.