⚽

Canada vs Peru

Sat 3 Oct, 18:00

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 60%

Canada

Predicted Winner

2-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.73 - 0.37

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Canada last 5 at home: 2W-2D-1L (scored 9, conceded 5)

5 Peru last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 5, conceded 10)

6 H2H (1): Canada lead 1-0 (0D), avg 1.0 goals, BTTS 0%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Canada with an estimated 60% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.73-0.37 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Canada have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 9, conceding 5), while Peru have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 10). Canada lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 0 draws), averaging 1.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 0% of meetings.