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Canada vs Chile

Sat 26 Sept, 23:00

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 53%

Canada

Predicted Winner

1-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.33 - 0.67

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Canada last 5 at home: 2W-2D-1L (scored 10, conceded 5)

5 Chile last 5 away: 2W-0D-3L (scored 6, conceded 10)

6 H2H (1): even, 1D, avg 0.0 goals, BTTS 0%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Canada with an estimated 53% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.33-0.67 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Canada have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 5), while Chile have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 10). All 1 of their last meetings have ended in a draw, averaging 0.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 0% of meetings.