Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia

Maccabi Tel Aviv is in excellent form (W3, 2.0 goals/match avg) vs CSKA Sofia's mixed recent record (W1D3 in last 5). Home advantage + recent dominance (5-0 away vs Sheriff, 3-1 away vs Beer Sheva) supports home win. CSKA concedes 0.9/match but Maccabi's attacking output (2.0 avg) and BTTS rate (50%) suggest both teams score. Over 2.5 likely given combined expected ~3.1 goals. Market odds (1.85 home) slightly undervalue home given form gap; draw at 3.3 is overpriced (historical ~25% but this matchup favors home). No H2H data limits precision; calibrate confidence to 62% (60-69 bucket historically 62% hit).

Maccabi's W3 form and 2.0 goals/match avg vs CSKA's mixed recent record and away weakness (1.5 goals in 2 away matches) favors home, though 1.85 odds fairly reflect this.

Maccabi BTTS 50%, CSKA 56%; both teams have scored in majority of recent matches; CSKA concedes 0.9/match but Maccabi's attack is sharp.

Combined expected goals ~3.1 (Maccabi 2.0 + CSKA 1.8 minus home/away adjustments); both teams' O2.5 rates 67-70%; market at 47.6% undervalues Over.

Home/Draw at 1.2 (83.3%) is overpriced; home alone at 1.85 (54.1%) is fair; draw at 3.3 (30.3%) is inflated vs ~22% baseline for competitive matches.

Home -0.5 at 1.8 (55.6%) reflects home win probability; given form gap, home -0.5 is fair value; -1.0 at 3.4 (29.4%) is underpriced if Maccabi dominates.

Maccabi averaging 2.0 goals/match makes Home Over 1.5 at 2.05 (48.8%) slight value; CSKA averaging 1.8 but only 1.5 away makes Away Under 1.5 at 1.22 (82.0%) fair.

No corner data provided; Europa League qualifiers typically 9-11 corners; Over 9.5 at 2.05 (48.8%) is fair but low confidence without recent corner averages.

CSKA recent match shows 9 yellows (outlier); Maccabi 2 yellows; no line provided; typical Europa League ~4-5 cards; insufficient data for confident pick.