Koper vs NSI Runavik

Koper is heavily favored (65.3% fair) and has strong recent form: 4W-1D-1L in last 6, averaging 2.0 goals scored vs 1.3 conceded. They just beat NSI Runavik 2-0 four days ago in this exact fixture. NSI Runavik is weaker (1.5 goals/match, 40% BTTS rate, 50% CS rate) and just lost that H2H. However, Koper's home sample is tiny (1 match), and Europa Conference League qualifiers are volatile. Over 2.5 leans on Koper's 60% O2.5 rate and NSI's recent defensive fragility (3-3 draw vs Vikingur). BTTS is unlikely given NSI's recent form and Koper's clean-sheet strength.

Koper 65.3% fair probability, recent H2H win, superior form, but Europa Conference volatility and limited home data warrant medium confidence.

NSI 40% BTTS rate, Koper 40% CS rate; recent 2-0 H2H result and NSI's weak away profile suggest at least one team will not score.

Koper 60% O2.5 rate and 2.0 goals/match average; NSI conceded 4 in last 3 away matches; fair market 61.1% aligns with slight edge.

Home/Draw 93.5% fair probability; Koper favored but draw is realistic given Europa Conference volatility and NSI's recent draw tendency.

Koper's 2.0 goals/match average and recent 2-0 H2H win support -1.5 cover; Asian Handicap -1 at 61.7% fair suggests -1.5 is value.

Koper 70.4% fair for Over 1.5 (home); NSI 80% fair for Under 1.5 (away); both align with form and H2H evidence.

Market is split 54.6% each; no recent corner data; Europa Conference qualifiers typically generate 9-11 corners; insufficient edge to recommend.

No recent card data; Europa Conference baseline ~4-5 cards; insufficient evidence for directional lean.