CFR 1907 Cluj vs Alashkert

CFR dominates H2H (2W, 1D; 5-0 and 2-0 wins in 2018). Recent first-leg ended 1-1, but that was a replay context. Alashkert is in a three-draw slump (DDDL) with weak O2.5 rate (30%) and low FTS rate (10%), suggesting defensive solidity but blunt attack. CFR's home advantage in a knockout replay is material. Alashkert averages 1.5 goals scored but concedes 0.9—vulnerable to CFR's pressure. BTTS hit 70% of Alashkert's recent matches; CFR's one recorded match was 1-1. Over 2.5 probability ~58% given Alashkert's defensive weakness and CFR's home edge. Market odds (1.49 home) are fair but not overpriced.

H2H dominance (2W-0L) and home advantage in replay outweigh recent 1-1 draw; Alashkert's form slump and low FTS rate support CFR progression.

Alashkert BTTS rate 70% recent; first-leg was 1-1; CFR conceded in that match; both teams likely to score in replay.

Alashkert concedes 0.9/match; CFR's home pressure and first-leg 1-1 suggest >2.5 goals probable; market 55.3% fair, slight edge to Over.

CFR 2W-1D H2H and home advantage make home/draw extremely likely; away win only 16.3% fair probability.

H2H wins of 5-0 and 2-0 suggest CFR capable of 2+ goal margin; market 42.6% fair on -1 result, -1.5 line reasonable value.

CFR home edge and H2H dominance support >1.5 goals; Alashkert's 1.5 avg and defensive form suggest <1.5 likely in this context.

No corner data available; UEFA ECL baseline ~10 corners; CFR home dominance may push slightly higher, but low confidence without recent stats.

Alashkert 2.67 yellow/match; CFR 3 yellow/match; knockout replay context may elevate intensity; baseline ~4.5-5 cards reasonable.