Hibernian vs Malisheva

Malisheva arrives as heavy underdog (11.0 odds, 8.3% fair) but has demolished Hibernian 2-0 seven days ago and sits on a W2 streak with 2.3 goals/match and 40% clean sheets. Hibernian is L1, averaging 1.4 goals/match with 0% clean sheets and 40% failed-to-score rate. The recent H2H dominance, Malisheva's superior form (22/30 pts vs 12/30), and Hibernian's home vulnerabilities (0 CS in last 10) suggest the market has overweighted Hibernian's home status and underweighted Malisheva's momentum. BTTS at 51.3% is justified given both teams' 60% BTTS rates. Over 2.5 at 69% fair is reasonable; combined expected ~2.8 goals.

Recent H2H win, superior form streak, and Hibernian's defensive fragility outweigh home-ground advantage; market has over-priced Hibernian at 1.19.

Both teams scored in 60% of recent matches; Hibernian has 0% CS rate, Malisheva 0% FTS rate; 51.3% odds undervalue this outcome.

Both teams average 60% O2.5 rate; combined expected goals ~2.8; market fair 64.4% is reasonable but Malisheva's attacking form supports Over.

Malisheva win or draw covers the upset; market draw at 14.7% fair is suppressed given H2H volatility and form convergence.

Malisheva +1.5 (46.5% odds) is value given recent form gap and H2H win; Hibernian -1.5 (61.7%) is overpriced.

Hibernian 1.4 goals/match, 40% FTS; Malisheva 2.3 goals/match, 0% FTS; odds reflect this but Malisheva's edge is sharper.

Hibernian averaged 11 corners in last match; Malisheva data absent; market 56.5% fair is reasonable; insufficient data for strong lean.

Hibernian averaged 11 cards in last match (likely outlier or data error); Malisheva baseline ~4-5 cards; insufficient reliable data.