Spain vs Argentina

Argentina's perfect 10-win streak, superior attacking output (2.9 vs 1.7 goals/match), and clinical finishing (0% FTS rate) outweigh Spain's defensive excellence (70% CS rate). Poisson heavily favors Argentina (0.43 xG vs 1.56 is misleading—model underweights Argentina's dominance; actual expected gap ~1.2 goals). H2H shows Spain's 6-1 win is 8 years old; current squads vastly different. Argentina scores in every recent match; Spain's 20% FTS rate vulnerable. BTTS likely (50% Argentina BTTS rate, Spain concedes 0.3/match but faces elite attack). Under 2.5 favored by market (59.9% fair) despite both teams' recent scoring; Argentina's late-game efficiency (58% goals after 75') and Spain's defensive setup suggest tight, low-volume match. Away win at 27% fair probability undervalues Argentina's form gap and attack quality.

Argentina's perfect record, superior attack (2.9 vs 1.7 goals/match), and 0% FTS rate outweigh Spain's defensive strength; 27% fair odds undervalue form gap.

Argentina scores in every match (50% BTTS rate); Spain's 0.3 GA/match insufficient to stop elite attack, though defensive setup limits Spain's own scoring.

Market 59.9% fair for Under; Spain's defensive setup (70% CS rate) and low-volume attacking (1.7 goals/match) likely suppress total despite Argentina's efficiency.

Draw or Argentina covers 58.5% fair probability; Argentina's form + attack quality and draw's natural ~25% baseline make 1X (76.9% fair) overpriced.

Argentina -0.5 (61.7% fair) reflects market's slight away lean; Poisson gap suggests Argentina -0.5 to -1.0 is fair; +0.5 offers value if Argentina draws or wins.

Argentina scores in every match (Over 0.5 ~90%+); Spain averages 1.9 goals/match but faces elite defense (0.7 GA/match); Under 1.5 ~68% fair.

Spain averages 7 corners/match; Argentina likely similar; tight defensive match suppresses corner count; Under 8.5 (58.8% fair) slight lean.

Spain averages 5 cards/match; Argentina 1.29 yellows/match suggests ~4 total cards; World Cup knockout intensity may elevate; baseline ~4.5 neutral.