Ararat-Armenia vs Shamrock Rovers

Ararat-Armenia favored at home despite recent loss to Riga; Shamrock Rovers in strong form (W2, 2.0 avg goals) but poor away record (0 scored in 1 away match). Poisson model heavily favors home (2.96 xG vs 0.00 for away, though away model appears broken). Form weighting: Ararat 1.3 scored/1.1 conceded (40% BTTS), Shamrock 2.0 scored/0.9 conceded (60% BTTS). Combined BTTS rate ~50%, but Shamrock's away weakness and Ararat's 50% clean-sheet rate at home suggest moderate BTTS. Over 2.5 likely given Shamrock's attacking form and Ararat's recent 2-goal home display. Market underprices home slightly (41.2% fair vs 44.2% vigged); draw at 27.8% fair is reasonable given no H2H and moderate odds gap.

Home form stronger at venue, away team's poor away record outweighs recent attacking form.

Shamrock 60% BTTS rate + Ararat 40% BTTS rate + combined xG ~3.0 suggests both teams likely to score.

Combined expected goals ~3.0, Shamrock's 2.0 avg scored + Ararat's recent 2-goal home display favor Over.

Home or Draw covers 73.5% of market; home slightly favored but draw not ruled out given no H2H.

Poisson gap ~3 goals suggests home -1.5 is reasonable; away +1.5 at 1.6 offers value if away can stay competitive.

Ararat 1.3 avg scored at home, Shamrock 0 in 1 away match; home over 1.5 favored, away under 1.5 strong.

Ararat avg 4 corners, Shamrock avg 6 corners = ~10 total; 8.5 line slightly undervalued but limited recent data.

Ararat 7 cards/match (last 1), Shamrock 4 cards/match (last 2) = ~5.5 total; over 4.5 favored but small sample.