SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg

Sat 17 Oct, 13:30

FT 4-3

AI Prediction

LOW 45%

FC Augsburg

Predicted Winner

2-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 4-3

Predicted: 2-3. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.13 - 3.19

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 SV Elversberg last 3 at home: 2W-0D-1L (scored 8, conceded 5)

6 FC Augsburg last 5 away: 3W-0D-2L (scored 23, conceded 8)

7 H2H (1): FC Augsburg lead 1-0 (0D), avg 4.0 goals, BTTS 100%

8 SV Elversberg without: C. Campbell, L. Seifert (+6 more)

9 FC Augsburg without: N. Banks, A. Claude-Maurice (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours FC Augsburg with an estimated 45% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.13-3.19 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward SV Elversberg, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours FC Augsburg, so treat this one with extra caution. SV Elversberg have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 3 at home (scoring 8, conceding 5), while FC Augsburg have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 23, conceding 8). FC Augsburg lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 0 draws), averaging 4.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 100% of meetings. SV Elversberg without: C. Campbell, L. Seifert (+6 more); FC Augsburg without: N. Banks, A. Claude-Maurice (+6 more).