FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05

Sat 17 Oct, 13:30

FT 0-1

AI Prediction

LOW 35%

FC Schalke 04

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-1

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 0.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 FC Schalke 04 last 4 at home: 0W-2D-2L (scored 0, conceded 6)

6 FSV Mainz 05 last 5 away: 4W-1D-0L (scored 24, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): FC Schalke 04 lead 6-1 (3D), avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 30%

8 FC Schalke 04 without: M. Sylla, D. Ljubicic (+2 more)

9 FSV Mainz 05 without: D. Kohr, O. Ruoppi (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours FC Schalke 04 with an estimated 35% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward FSV Mainz 05, while the blended pick still favours FC Schalke 04, so treat this one with extra caution. FC Schalke 04 lead the head-to-head 6-1 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 30% of meetings. FC Schalke 04 have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 0, conceding 6), while FSV Mainz 05 have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 24, conceding 6). FC Schalke 04 without: M. Sylla, D. Ljubicic (+2 more); FSV Mainz 05 without: D. Kohr, O. Ruoppi (+6 more).