Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07

Sat 17 Oct, 13:30

FT 2-2

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 51%

Werder Bremen

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-2

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.39 - 0.00

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Werder Bremen last 4 at home: 2W-1D-1L (scored 8, conceded 6)

5 SC Paderborn 07 last 5 away: 2W-2D-1L (scored 7, conceded 7)

6 H2H (9): Werder Bremen lead 4-2 (3D), avg 4.0 goals, BTTS 67%

7 Werder Bremen without: F. Agu, S. Alvero (+14 more)

8 SC Paderborn 07 without: N. Awortwie-Grant, T. Gayret (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Werder Bremen with an estimated 51% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.39-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Werder Bremen lead the head-to-head 4-2 (with 3 draws), averaging 4.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 67% of meetings. Werder Bremen have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 8, conceding 6), while SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 7). Werder Bremen without: F. Agu, S. Alvero (+14 more); SC Paderborn 07 without: N. Awortwie-Grant, T. Gayret (+4 more).