Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart

Sat 17 Oct, 13:30

FT 1-0

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 53%

VfB Stuttgart

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-0

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.24 - 2.13

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Hamburger SV last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 7, conceded 10)

6 VfB Stuttgart last 5 away: 3W-0D-2L (scored 11, conceded 7)

7 H2H (10): VfB Stuttgart lead 6-3 (1D), avg 4.1 goals, BTTS 80%

8 Hamburger SV without: P. Daka, N. Remberg (+8 more)

9 VfB Stuttgart without: A. Al Dakhil, J. Diehl (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours VfB Stuttgart with an estimated 53% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.24-2.13 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours VfB Stuttgart, so treat this one with extra caution. VfB Stuttgart lead the head-to-head 6-3 (with 1 draw), averaging 4.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 80% of meetings. Hamburger SV have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 7, conceding 10), while VfB Stuttgart have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 11, conceding 7). Hamburger SV without: P. Daka, N. Remberg (+8 more); VfB Stuttgart without: A. Al Dakhil, J. Diehl (+10 more).