Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim

Sun 18 Oct, 15:30

FT 1-2

AI Prediction

LOW 39%

1899 Hoffenheim

Predicted Winner

3-5

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-2

Predicted: 3-5. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 4.85 - 3.23

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Borussia Mönchengladbach last 3 at home: 1W-0D-2L (scored 8, conceded 9)

6 1899 Hoffenheim last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 9, conceded 10)

7 H2H (10): Borussia Mönchengladbach lead 6-2 (2D), avg 4.8 goals, BTTS 90%

8 Borussia Mönchengladbach without: J. Castrop, F. Fleck (+14 more)

9 1899 Hoffenheim without: Bernardo, A. Hajdari (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours 1899 Hoffenheim with an estimated 39% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (4.85-3.23 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Borussia Mönchengladbach, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours 1899 Hoffenheim, so treat this one with extra caution. Borussia Mönchengladbach lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 4.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 90% of meetings. Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 3 at home (scoring 8, conceding 9), while 1899 Hoffenheim have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 10). Borussia Mönchengladbach without: J. Castrop, F. Fleck (+14 more); 1899 Hoffenheim without: Bernardo, A. Hajdari (+4 more).