Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund

Sat 17 Oct, 13:30

FT 0-0

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 60%

Borussia Dortmund

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-0

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.89 - 2.13

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Union Berlin last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 10, conceded 12)

6 Borussia Dortmund last 4 away: 3W-0D-1L (scored 9, conceded 3)

7 H2H (10): Borussia Dortmund lead 8-2 (0D), avg 3.7 goals, BTTS 40%

8 Union Berlin without: A. Ilic, J. Juranovic (+8 more)

9 Borussia Dortmund without: E. Can, G. Konstantelias (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Borussia Dortmund with an estimated 60% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.89-2.13 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Borussia Dortmund, so treat this one with extra caution. Borussia Dortmund lead the head-to-head 8-2 (with 0 draws), averaging 3.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. Union Berlin have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 12), while Borussia Dortmund have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 3). Union Berlin without: A. Ilic, J. Juranovic (+8 more); Borussia Dortmund without: E. Can, G. Konstantelias (+4 more).