Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg

Sun 18 Oct, 13:30

FT 2-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 54%

Bayer Leverkusen

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-1

Predicted: 2-1. Exact score correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.62 - 0.00

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Bayer Leverkusen last 3 at home: 3W-0D-0L (scored 8, conceded 0)

5 SC Freiburg last 4 away: 3W-1D-0L (scored 11, conceded 4)

6 H2H (10): Bayer Leverkusen lead 5-2 (3D), avg 3.9 goals, BTTS 90%

7 Bayer Leverkusen without: E. Ben Seghir, G. Doue (+10 more)

8 SC Freiburg without: Y. Suzuki, B. Yilmaz (+2 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bayer Leverkusen with an estimated 54% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.62-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Bayer Leverkusen lead the head-to-head 5-2 (with 3 draws), averaging 3.9 goals per game with both teams scoring in 90% of meetings. Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 3 at home (scoring 8, conceding 0), while SC Freiburg have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 11, conceding 4). Bayer Leverkusen without: E. Ben Seghir, G. Doue (+10 more); SC Freiburg without: Y. Suzuki, B. Yilmaz (+2 more).