Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln

Sat 19 Sept, 13:30

FT 2-1

AI Prediction

LOW 40%

1. FC Köln

Predicted Winner

0-4

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-1

Predicted: 0-4. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 3.70

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Hamburger SV last 3 at home: 0W-1D-2L (scored 3, conceded 9)

6 1. FC Köln last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 14, conceded 12)

7 H2H (10): Hamburger SV lead 4-3 (3D), avg 2.6 goals, BTTS 60%

8 Hamburger SV without: S. Bornauw, A. Rossing-Lelesiit (+4 more)

9 1. FC Köln without: T. Hubers, T. Hubers

Detailed Analysis

The model favours 1. FC Köln with an estimated 40% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-3.70 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours 1. FC Köln, so treat this one with extra caution. Hamburger SV have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 3 at home (scoring 3, conceding 9), while 1. FC Köln have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 14, conceding 12). Hamburger SV lead the head-to-head 4-3 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.6 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Hamburger SV without: S. Bornauw, A. Rossing-Lelesiit (+4 more); 1. FC Köln without: T. Hubers, T. Hubers.