Fri 20 Mar, 16:30
Despite Ostapenko being ranked 30 positions higher (#24 vs #54), current form tells a completely different story. Ostapenko is going through a catastrophic streak of 5 consecutive losses, with a terrible 1-5 record on hardcourt in her last 6 matches. Her form shows only 17% wins, which is alarming for a player of her caliber. Meanwhile, Yastremska comes in with 2 straight wins and shows much better form on hardcourt (2-4 in last 6). A key factor is that Yastremska played yesterday against Krueger, meaning she's in match rhythm, while Ostapenko hasn't played for 10 days. Both players have high three-set rates (Yastremska 50%, Ostapenko 17% but small sample), suggesting this will be a lengthy match. Yastremska is known as an aggressive baseliner who can match Ostapenko's power, and her current form gives her a significant psychological advantage. The market is overvaluing Ostapenko's reputation and ranking while undervaluing how poor her current form is.
Excellent value bet given Ostapenko's terrible 1-5 hardcourt form. Market overvaluing ranking.
Yastremska has 50% three-set rate and both players are aggressive which could lead to a lengthy match.
Even if Ostapenko wins, it's likely to be close. Yastremska's form suggests she can take at least 1 set.