Fri 20 Mar, 18:50
Iva Jovic enters this match as a clear favorite due to the significant ranking gap (#17 vs #100). Despite a recent streak of 3 losses, Jovic has shown solid form on hardcourt with a 3-3 record in her last 6 matches. Crucially, Jovic has had 12 days of rest allowing for full recovery, while Badosa played yesterday which could affect her freshness. Badosa is going through a difficult period with 4 consecutive losses and only a 33% win rate in her last 6 matches. Her hardcourt form is limited with just a 1-1 record in her last 2 matches on this surface. The 83-position ranking gap is enormous and reflects the quality difference between the players. Jovic is having her best season with $550k in prize money compared to Badosa's $215k. Both are right-handed which eliminates any lefty advantage. This is an early round (R64) where upsets can happen, but the quality gap is too large. I expect Jovic to control the match with her aggression and consistency.
Odds of 1.62 for Jovic offer solid value given the massive ranking gap and current form difference.
Expecting a dominant 2-0 Jovic win with relatively short sets due to the quality gap.
The quality gap and Badosa's poor form suggest Jovic can win without dropping a set.