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Valencia vs Athletic Club

Sat 17 Oct, 19:00

FT 0-0

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 50%

Athletic Club

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 0-0

Predicted: 0-1 — Winner: Incorrect

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.32 - 1.46

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Valencia last 5 at home: 0W-1D-4L (scored 2, conceded 10)

6 Athletic Club last 5 away: 2W-0D-3L (scored 4, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): Athletic Club lead 6-3 (1D), avg 2.1 goals, BTTS 40%

8 Valencia without: S. Canos, J. Copete (+8 more)

9 Athletic Club without: A. Djalo, U. Egiluz (+6 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Athletic Club with an estimated 50% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.32-1.46 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Athletic Club, so treat this one with extra caution. Athletic Club lead the head-to-head 6-3 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. Valencia have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 at home (scoring 2, conceding 10), while Athletic Club have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 6). Valencia without: S. Canos, J. Copete (+8 more); Athletic Club without: A. Djalo, U. Egiluz (+6 more).