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Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano

Mon 19 Oct, 19:00

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 41%

Getafe

Predicted Winner

2-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.95 - 0.41

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Getafe last 5 at home: 3W-2D-0L (scored 7, conceded 3)

6 Rayo Vallecano last 5 away: 0W-1D-4L (scored 5, conceded 15)

7 H2H (10): Rayo Vallecano lead 4-0 (6D), avg 1.2 goals, BTTS 20%

8 Getafe without: Juanmi, O. Mangala (+10 more)

9 Rayo Vallecano without: A. Batalla, Luiz Felipe (+4 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Getafe with an estimated 41% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.95-0.41 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Rayo Vallecano, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Getafe, so treat this one with extra caution. Rayo Vallecano lead the head-to-head 4-0 (with 6 draws), averaging 1.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 20% of meetings. Getafe have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 7, conceding 3), while Rayo Vallecano have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 15). Getafe without: Juanmi, O. Mangala (+10 more); Rayo Vallecano without: A. Batalla, Luiz Felipe (+4 more).