Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid

Sat 17 Oct, 12:00

FT 0-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 53%

Atletico Madrid

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-1

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.22 - 1.95

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Espanyol last 4 at home: 1W-1D-2L (scored 6, conceded 6)

6 Atletico Madrid last 5 away: 3W-0D-2L (scored 9, conceded 7)

7 H2H (10): Atletico Madrid lead 4-1 (5D), avg 3.1 goals, BTTS 90%

8 Espanyol without: K. Garcia, Jofre (+2 more)

9 Atletico Madrid without: J. Cardoso, Koke (+2 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Atletico Madrid with an estimated 53% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.22-1.95 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Atletico Madrid, so treat this one with extra caution. Atletico Madrid lead the head-to-head 4-1 (with 5 draws), averaging 3.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 90% of meetings. Espanyol have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 6, conceding 6), while Atletico Madrid have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 7). Espanyol without: K. Garcia, Jofre (+2 more); Atletico Madrid without: J. Cardoso, Koke (+2 more).