Tue 15 Sept, 19:30
The model favours Real Madrid with an estimated 77% win probability, based on market odds and a Poisson xG model (0.67-2.68 goals). The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Elche have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 6, conceding 12), while Real Madrid have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 3).
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