Sevilla vs Valencia

Fri 11 Sept, 19:00

FT 1-0

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 53%

Sevilla

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-0

Predicted: 3-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 8pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 3.00 - 1.33

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Sevilla last 3 at home: 2W-0D-1L (scored 5, conceded 5)

6 Valencia last 3 away: 1W-1D-1L (scored 4, conceded 5)

7 H2H (10): Valencia lead 3-2 (5D), avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 60%

8 Sevilla without: A. Sangante, R. Vargas (+2 more)

9 Valencia without: S. Canos, J. Copete (+14 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Sevilla with an estimated 53% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.00-1.33 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Sevilla runs 8 points above the market's fair price. Sevilla have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 3 at home (scoring 5, conceding 5), while Valencia have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 5). Valencia lead the head-to-head 3-2 (with 5 draws), averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Sevilla without: A. Sangante, R. Vargas (+2 more); Valencia without: S. Canos, J. Copete (+14 more).