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Celta Vigo vs Malaga

Sun 13 Sept, 12:00

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 54%

Celta Vigo

Predicted Winner

1-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.01 - 0.00

3 Celta Vigo last 4 at home: 1W-1D-2L (scored 4, conceded 6)

4 H2H (10): Malaga lead 5-4 (1D), avg 2.2 goals, BTTS 20%

5 Celta Vigo without: A. Antanon, J. El Abdellaoui (+6 more)

6 Malaga without: A. Aznou, F. Calero (+12 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Celta Vigo with an estimated 54% win probability, based on market odds and a Poisson xG model (1.01-0.00 goals). Celta Vigo have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 4, conceding 6). Malaga lead the head-to-head 5-4 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 20% of meetings. Celta Vigo without: A. Antanon, J. El Abdellaoui (+6 more); Malaga without: A. Aznou, F. Calero (+12 more).