Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

Real Madrid dominates H2H (7W-2D-1L) and form (W4, 2.1 goals/match vs Sociedad's L4, 1.4 goals/match). Sociedad has zero clean sheets in 10 matches and failed to score in 4 of last 5. Madrid's 1W-0D-0L start and 40% CS rate suggest defensive solidity despite injuries (Militao, Mendy out). Sociedad's 80% BTTS rate is misleading—recent form shows 20% FTS rate. Poisson unavailable but league avg 1.18 goals/team and Madrid's 2.1 avg scored vs Sociedad's 1.8 conceded supports Under 2.5. Market odds (76.3% home, 69.4% Over) are reasonable but slightly overvalue Over; Madrid's injury depth and Sociedad's defensive collapse favor a controlled 2-0 win.

Madrid's H2H dominance, form gap, and Sociedad's defensive collapse justify home favorite, but injuries (Militao, Mendy, Endrick, Rodrygo) and early-season sample size warrant medium confidence.

Sociedad's 20% FTS rate in last 10 matches and 0 goals in 2 of last 5 games suggest they will struggle to score; Madrid's 40% CS rate supports clean sheet.

Madrid's 2.1 avg scored + Sociedad's 1.8 conceded = 3.9 combined, but Sociedad's recent form (0 goals in 2 of 5) and Madrid's 40% CS rate suggest tighter scoreline; league avg 2.35 supports Under.

Home/Draw at 1.06 (94.3%) is nearly certain; Madrid's form and H2H make draw unlikely, so home is the play within this market.

Madrid -1.5 at 1.8 (55.6%) reflects the form gap; Sociedad's L4 and 0 goals in 2 of 5 make a 2+ goal margin plausible, but injuries to Madrid's attack (Endrick, Rodrygo) add uncertainty.

Madrid's 2.1 avg scored and Sociedad's 1.8 conceded support Home Over 1.5; Sociedad's 20% FTS rate and 0 goals in 2 of 5 strongly support Away Under 0.5.

No recent corner data; market at 58.8% Under suggests even contest or Madrid dominance; Sociedad's defensive weakness may limit their corner creation, but Madrid's injuries could reduce their attacking intensity.

No recent card data; Sociedad averaging 3 yellows/match suggests defensive frustration; Madrid's dominance may provoke fouls, but early-season sample too small to be confident.