Paraguay vs France

France is dominant: 9pts/3W, 2.9 goals/match, 0.8 conceded, W5 streak. Paraguay sits 3rd with 4pts, 1.2 goals/match, inconsistent form (D2 streak). France's away record: 4 goals vs Norway, 3 vs Colombia, 2 vs Brazil—elite attacking. H2H: France 5-0 Paraguay (2017). Poisson data absent but form gap is massive (GD +8 vs -2). Market heavily favors France (80.6% fair), but BTTS at 70% recent rate and Over 2.5 at 100% recent rate suggest goals despite Paraguay's defensive shape. Corners line (9.5) is fair; France's discipline minimal (0.25 yellows/match) vs Paraguay's 2.25.

France 9pts/3W, Paraguay 4pts/1W; form gap, H2H dominance, and elite away record (13 goals in 4 away matches) make France overwhelming favorite.

France 70% BTTS rate in last 10; Paraguay 50% BTTS rate; France's attacking dominance + Paraguay's 1.2 goals/match average suggests both teams will score.

France 100% Over 2.5 in last 10 matches; Paraguay 50% Over 2.5; combined expected goals favor Over given France's 2.9 goals/match.

France is strong favorite, but Double Chance 1X (Home/Draw) at 22.2% is poor value; 12 (Home/Away) at 90.9% is more sensible but France alone is better.

France's 3-goal average margin and H2H 5-0 win suggest Away -1.5 (France wins by 2+) is strong; 64.5% fair probability aligns with form gap.

France 2.9 goals/match, 3+ in 8/10 recent; Paraguay 1.2 goals/match, 0 in 2/10 recent; France likely to exceed 2.5, Paraguay likely under 0.5.

Paraguay avg 10.5 corners (last 4), France 8.2 (last 5); combined ~9.4 suggests line is tight; slight lean Over given Paraguay's defensive shape.

Paraguay 3.8 cards/match (last 4), France 0.6 (last 5); combined ~2.2 per team suggests total ~4.4; World Cup knockout intensity may push slightly over.