Charlton vs Bolton

Tue 3 Nov, 19:45

FT 0-1

AI Prediction

LOW 35%

Charlton

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-1

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.04 - 0.85

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Charlton last 4 at home: 0W-3D-1L (scored 2, conceded 4)

6 Bolton last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 9, conceded 11)

7 H2H (10): Bolton lead 5-3 (2D), avg 3.3 goals, BTTS 80%

8 Charlton without: R. Apter, C. Sichenje (+4 more)

9 Bolton without: E. Erhahon, R. Hardie (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Charlton with an estimated 34% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.04-0.85 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Charlton, so treat this one with extra caution. Bolton lead the head-to-head 5-3 (with 2 draws), averaging 3.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 80% of meetings. Charlton have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 2, conceding 4), while Bolton have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 11). Charlton without: R. Apter, C. Sichenje (+4 more); Bolton without: E. Erhahon, R. Hardie (+6 more).