Watford vs Lincoln

Tue 3 Nov, 19:45

FT 1-0

AI Prediction

LOW 37%

Watford

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-0

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.06 - 1.02

3 Watford last 4 at home: 2W-0D-2L (scored 5, conceded 7)

4 Lincoln last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 4, conceded 9)

5 Watford without: M. Antonio, K. Baah (+16 more)

6 Lincoln without: T. Darikwa, M. Melia (+2 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Watford with an estimated 37% win probability, based on market odds and a Poisson xG model (1.06-1.02 goals). The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Watford have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 5, conceding 7), while Lincoln have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 9). Watford without: M. Antonio, K. Baah (+16 more); Lincoln without: T. Darikwa, M. Melia (+2 more).