QPR vs Burnley

Tue 3 Nov, 19:45

FT 1-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 52%

QPR

Predicted Winner

4-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-1

Predicted: 4-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 3.70 - 0.85

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 QPR last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 13, conceded 5)

6 Burnley last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 7, conceded 8)

7 H2H (10): Burnley lead 5-2 (3D), avg 2.5 goals, BTTS 30%

8 QPR without: R. Burrell, J. Clarke-Salter (+8 more)

9 Burnley without: Z. Amdouni, B. Amos (+22 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours QPR with an estimated 52% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.70-0.85 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours QPR, so treat this one with extra caution. Burnley lead the head-to-head 5-2 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 30% of meetings. QPR have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 13, conceding 5), while Burnley have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 8). QPR without: R. Burrell, J. Clarke-Salter (+8 more); Burnley without: Z. Amdouni, B. Amos (+22 more).