Portsmouth vs Swansea

Tue 3 Nov, 19:45

FT 3-1

AI Prediction

LOW 37%

Portsmouth

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-1

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.90 - 1.71

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Portsmouth last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 9, conceded 7)

6 Swansea last 4 away: 2W-0D-2L (scored 4, conceded 9)

7 H2H (4): Swansea lead 2-1 (1D), avg 3.0 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Portsmouth without: K. Anderson, B. Arthur (+12 more)

9 Swansea without: C. Burgess, Ronald (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Portsmouth with an estimated 37% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.90-1.71 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Swansea, while the blended pick still favours Portsmouth, so treat this one with extra caution. Portsmouth have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 9, conceding 7), while Swansea have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 9). Swansea lead the head-to-head 2-1 (with 1 draw), averaging 3.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Portsmouth without: K. Anderson, B. Arthur (+12 more); Swansea without: C. Burgess, Ronald (+8 more).