Derby vs Norwich

Tue 3 Nov, 19:45

FT 0-4

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 50%

Norwich

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-4

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.91 - 1.90

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Derby last 4 at home: 0W-1D-3L (scored 2, conceded 5)

6 Norwich last 5 away: 2W-0D-3L (scored 10, conceded 13)

7 H2H (10): Derby lead 4-3 (3D), avg 2.7 goals, BTTS 70%

8 Derby without: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin (+16 more)

9 Norwich without: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Norwich with an estimated 50% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.91-1.90 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Norwich, so treat this one with extra caution. Derby have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 4 at home (scoring 2, conceding 5), while Norwich have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 10, conceding 13). Derby lead the head-to-head 4-3 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. Derby without: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin (+16 more); Norwich without: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo (+10 more).