Blackburn vs Stoke City

Tue 3 Nov, 19:45

FT 1-2

AI Prediction

LOW 38%

Blackburn

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-2

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.09 - 1.06

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Blackburn last 4 at home: 3W-0D-1L (scored 8, conceded 4)

6 Stoke City last 4 away: 3W-1D-0L (scored 6, conceded 3)

7 H2H (10): Stoke City lead 5-3 (2D), avg 2.2 goals, BTTS 40%

8 Blackburn without: A. Forshaw, M. Litherland (+6 more)

9 Stoke City without: A. Ampah, E. Bocat (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Blackburn with an estimated 38% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.09-1.06 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Blackburn, so treat this one with extra caution. Stoke City lead the head-to-head 5-3 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. Blackburn have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 8, conceding 4), while Stoke City have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 3). Blackburn without: A. Forshaw, M. Litherland (+6 more); Stoke City without: A. Ampah, E. Bocat (+10 more).