Birmingham vs Millwall

Tue 3 Nov, 20:00

FT 3-0

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 57%

Birmingham

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-0

Predicted: 3-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 9pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 3.46 - 1.15

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Birmingham last 5 at home: 2W-3D-0L (scored 12, conceded 5)

6 Millwall last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 5, conceded 7)

7 H2H (10): Millwall lead 4-2 (4D), avg 2.1 goals, BTTS 30%

8 Birmingham without: M. Leonard, K. Lund (+8 more)

9 Millwall without: C. De Norre, L. Jensen (+12 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Birmingham with an estimated 57% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.46-1.15 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Birmingham runs 9 points above the market's fair price. Millwall lead the head-to-head 4-2 (with 4 draws), averaging 2.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 30% of meetings. Birmingham have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 12, conceding 5), while Millwall have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 7). Birmingham without: M. Leonard, K. Lund (+8 more); Millwall without: C. De Norre, L. Jensen (+12 more).