Wrexham vs Preston

Sat 17 Oct, 14:00

FT 4-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 56%

Wrexham

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 4-1

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.81 - 0.77

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Wrexham last 5 at home: 1W-2D-2L (scored 6, conceded 7)

5 Preston last 4 away: 0W-1D-3L (scored 3, conceded 9)

6 H2H (3): Wrexham lead 2-0 (1D), avg 3.3 goals, BTTS 100%

7 Wrexham without: N. Broadhead, L. Cacace (+14 more)

8 Preston without: H. Clarke, L. Gibbs (+14 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Wrexham with an estimated 56% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.81-0.77 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Wrexham lead the head-to-head 2-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 3.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 100% of meetings. Wrexham have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 6, conceding 7), while Preston have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 3, conceding 9). Wrexham without: N. Broadhead, L. Cacace (+14 more); Preston without: H. Clarke, L. Gibbs (+14 more).