Swansea vs West Ham

Sat 17 Oct, 14:00

FT 0-1

AI Prediction

LOW 36%

West Ham

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-1

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.34 - 0.77

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Swansea last 5 at home: 3W-2D-0L (scored 7, conceded 2)

6 West Ham last 5 away: 3W-2D-0L (scored 16, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): West Ham lead 5-2 (3D), avg 2.5 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Swansea without: C. Burgess, J. Key (+6 more)

9 West Ham without: K. Lamadrid, K. Lamadrid

Detailed Analysis

The model favours West Ham with an estimated 36% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.34-0.77 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Swansea, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours West Ham, so treat this one with extra caution. West Ham lead the head-to-head 5-2 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Swansea have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 7, conceding 2), while West Ham have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 16, conceding 6). Swansea without: C. Burgess, J. Key (+6 more); West Ham without: K. Lamadrid, K. Lamadrid.